Predictions Week 1: Magnum, P.I., FBI & The Neighborhood Are Certain To Be Renewed

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TV Grim Reaper’s predictions are for scripted broadcast primetime show renewals for the 2021-22 season or cancellations by the end of the 2020-21 season.

See all the Reaper’s past predictions here.

NetShow (Producer)Status
ABCA Million Little Things (Disney)likely renewal
ABCThe Conners (Carsey-Werner)likely renewal
ABCThe Rookie (Disney/eOne)likely renewal
CBSFBI (CBS/NBCU)certain renewal
CBSMagnum, P.I. (CBS/NBCU)certain renewal
CBSThe Neighborhood (CBS)certain renewal
NBCChicago Fire (NBCU)renewed through '22-'23 season
NBCChicago Med (NBCU)renewed through '22-'23 season
NBCChicago P.D. (NBCU)renewed through '22-'23 season
NBCLaw & Order: SVU (NBCU)renewed through '22-'23 season
NBCManifest (WB)likely renewal
NBCNew Amsterdam (NBCU)renewed through '22-'23 season
NBCThis Is Us (Disney)renewed

TV Grim Reaper will bring plenty of bad news for TV show fans this season, but his first predictions of the new season are always good news!

Magnum, P.I., FBI & The Neighborhood are certain to be renewed for a season four in 2021-22

The Fourth Season Guarantee of The Renewal Gods
All shows produced by a network’s own studio in the past twelve seasons that finished their third seasons with at least 66 episodes have been renewed for a fourth season.

If not for COVID-19 production disruptions last season, Magnum, PI, FBI and The Neighborhood would have finished their second seasons with 44 or more episodes, and are produced by their network’s in-house studio (Magnum & FBI are co-productions with NBCU, but that doesn’t break the guarantee).

Because of COVID-19 production disruptions it’s not certain those three shows will end season 3 with 66 episodes, but I’m taking a leap that it won’t matter this year!

What about the rest of the 3rd season shows?

Shows That Will Finish Season 3 With Fewer than 66 Episodes

A Million Little Things (36 episodes after s2), Manifest (29), The Rookie (40) finished their second seasons with fewer than 44 episodes and so will have fewer than 66 episodes at the end of their third seasons.

The predictions for each will still lean heavily towards renewal regardless of ratings because cancellations among such “fewer than 66 episodes after s3” shows are rare, but not unheard of.

Third Party Productions

The Conners (produced by Carsey-Werner) is both produced by a third party and, with only 31 episodes after season two, will not reach 66 episodes at the end of season three. Its prediction will also lean towards renewal regardless of ratings.

In A Normal Year, All Non-Rookie CW Shows Not Already Canceled Would Be Certain To Be Renewed, This Year ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The CW hasn’t canceled a non-rookie show without announcing a final season at the same time (aka, “renanceling”) since Hart Of Dixie in Spring, 2015.

This is likely because their past deal with Netflix for shows that premiered through the 2018-19 season includes how many episodes Netflix will pay for, which then determines how many will be produced. CW has made it their standard operating procedure to announce a cancellation at the same time as the final season renewal.

However, CW hasn’t announced ANY final seasons yet for 2020-21 (ignoring the delayed final episodes of Supernatural), likely due to COVID-19 complications. Given that CW’s “regular” shows won’t begin until January, there’s still time for those announcements, but COVID-19 might disrupt this long term CW pattern. We’ll have to wait and see!

Recapping the renewals and cancellations already known before the start of the season.

  • Chicago Fire, Chicago Med, Chicago, PD, Law & Order: SVU, New Amsterdam and This is Us have already been renewed for the 2021-22 season (or beyond).
  • Likely because of COVID-19 complications, no shows that will air this season have been canceled in advance. That’s quite a break from recent history. Last season, there were 10 shows that aired during the season that were canceled before the season began.

Week 1 predictions cover only shows with special circumstances. Starting next week, predictions will expand to cover every “regular” scripted show that has premiered this season. Sadly, because of COVID-19, that will only be a few shows.

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The reaper’s running prediction tally this season: 

  • Right: 
  • Wrong:

Chicago Fire, Chicago Med, Chicago, PD, Law & Order: SVU, New Amsterdam and This is Us were renewed for the 2021-22 season before the 2020-21 season began.

How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.