Broke is likely to be renewed. Late season premier rookies are always a long shot, but initial ratings are good, and am still sticking with the theory that the ruin of the pilot season will tip marginal shows into renewal.
In last week’s news, to no one’s surprise, both 911 and 911:Lone Star were renewed. And somewhat surprisingly, God Friended Me became a rare season 2 CBS drama cancellation.
(sort the table by clicking on the column heading)
|ABC||A Million Little Things (Disney)||likely renewal|
|ABC||American Housewife (Disney)||likely renewal|
|ABC||black-ish (Disney)||likely renewal|
|ABC||Bless This Mess (Disney)||likely renewal|
|ABC||For Life (Disney/Sony)||likely renewal|
|ABC||Fresh Off The Boat (Disney)||canceled|
|ABC||Grey's Anatomy (Disney)||renewed|
|ABC||How To Get Away With Murder (Disney)||canceled|
|ABC||Mixed-ish (Disney)||likely renewal|
|ABC||Modern Family (Disney)||canceled|
|ABC||Single Parents (Disney)||likely renewal|
|ABC||Schooled (Disney/Sony)||likely renewal|
|ABC||Station 19 (Disney)||renewed|
|ABC||Stumptown (Disney)||likely cancellation|
|ABC||The Baker and the Beauty (NBCU)||summer|
|ABC||The Conners (Carsey-Werner)||likely renewal|
|ABC||The Goldbergs (Sony)||likely renewal|
|ABC||The Good Doctor (Disney/Sony)||renewed|
|ABC||The Rookie (Disney/eOne)||likely renewal|
|CBS||All Rise (WB/CBS)||likely renewal|
|CBS||Blue Bloods (CBS)||likely renewal|
|CBS||Bob Hearts Abishola (WB)||likely renewal|
|CBS||Broke (CBS)||likely renewal|
|CBS||Bull (CBS)||likely renewal|
|CBS||Carol’s Second Act (CBS)||likely renewal|
|CBS||Criminal Minds (CBS/Disney)||canceled|
|CBS||FBI (CBS/NBCU)||likely renewal|
|CBS||FBI: Most Wanted (CBS)||likely renewal|
|CBS||God Friended Me (WB/CBS)||canceled|
|CBS||Hawaii Five-0 (CBS)||canceled|
|CBS||MacGyver (CBS)||likely renewal|
|CBS||Madam Secretary (CBS)||canceled|
|CBS||Magnum, P.I. (CBS/NBCU)||likely renewal|
|CBS||Man With A Plan (CBS)||likely renewal|
|CBS||NCIS (CBS)||likely renewal|
|CBS||NCIS: Los Angeles (CBS)||likely renewal|
|CBS||NCIS: New Orleans (CBS)||likely renewal|
|CBS||SEAL Team (CBS)||certain renewal|
|CBS||SWAT (CBS/Sony)||certain renewal|
|CBS||The Neighborhood (CBS)||likely renewal|
|CBS||The Unicorn (CBS)||likely renewal|
|CBS||Tommy (Amblin)||likely renewal|
|CBS||Young Sheldon (WB)||renewed|
|CW||All American (WB)||renewed|
|CW||Black Lightning (WB)||renewed|
|CW||DC's Legends Of Tomorrow (WB)||renewed|
|CW||In The Dark (CBS)||renewed|
|CW||Katy Keene (WB)||likely renewal|
|CW||Nancy Drew (CBS)||renewed|
|CW||Roswell, NM (WB)||renewed|
|CW||The Flash (WB)||renewed|
|Fox||9-1-1: Lonestar (Disney)||renewed|
|Fox||Almost Family (Fox/ NBCU)||canceled|
|Fox||Bless The Harts (Fox/Disney)||renewed|
|Fox||Bob's Burgers (Disney)||likely renewal|
|Fox||Family Guy (Disney)||likely renewal|
|Fox||Last Man Standing (Disney)||likely renewal|
|Fox||Outmatched (Disney/Fox)||likely cancellation|
|Fox||Prodigal Son (WB/Fox)||likely renewal|
|Fox||The Resident (Disney)||likely renewal|
|Fox||The Simpsons (Disney)||renewed|
|NBC||Bluff City Law (NBCU)||canceled|
|NBC||Brooklyn Nine-Nine (NBCU)||renewed|
|NBC||Chicago Fire (NBCU)||renewed through '22-'23 season|
|NBC||Chicago Med (NBCU)||renewed through '22-'23 season|
|NBC||Chicago P.D. (NBCU)||renewed through '22-'23 season|
|NBC||Council of Dads (NBCU)||summer show|
|NBC||Good Girls (NBCU)||likely renewal|
|NBC||Indebted (Sony/NBCU)||likely cancellation|
|NBC||Law & Order: SVU (NBCU)||renewed through '22-'23 season|
|NBC||Lincoln Rhyme: Hunt for the Bone Collector (NBCU/Sony)||likely renewal|
|NBC||Manifest (WB)||likely renewal|
|NBC||New Amsterdam (NBCU)||renewed through '22-'23 season|
|NBC||Perfect Harmony (Disney)||canceled|
|NBC||The Blacklist (Sony)||renewed|
|NBC||The Good Place (NBCU)||canceled|
|NBC||This Is Us (Disney)||renewed through '21-'22 season|
|NBC||Will & Grace (NBCU)||canceled|
|NBC||Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist (NBCU)||likely cancellation|
ABC shows predicted to be canceled
Stumptown – lowest rated ABC show not already canceled, in a normal year it’s doomed, but with the disrupted pilot season anything can happen.
ABC shows predicted to be renewed
For Life – the disrupted pilot season makes its renewal more likely than in a regular year.
Mixed-ish, Black-ish – borderline ratings, in potential danger in a normal year, but with the disrupted pilot season renewal seems likely.
The Conners, Bless This Mess,The Goldbergs, Schooled, A Million Little Things, American Housewife, Single Parents, The Rookie – ratings in the renewal range.
CBS shows predicted to be canceled
CBS shows predicted to be renewed
Broke – late season premier rookies are always a long shot, but initial ratings are good.
Man With A Plan – it’s the longest running CBS produced sitcom in over a decade, would be surprised if it ended this season.
Tommy – lowest rated CBS show, in a normal season this show would be 100% dead, but with the pilot season disrupted, am shifting the prediction to marginal renewal.
All Rise – in a normal year, it would be in some danger, but with the disrupted pilot season the risk for it is now likely low. (but not low enough for now cancelled God Friended Me!)
The Unicorn, Carol’s Second Act – each received only 5 additional episodes ordered, which is a negative indicator for renewal. In a normal year, CBS would not renew all their rookie sitcoms, but with COVID-19 disrupting pilot production, existing show renewals will likely happen over pilot pickups.
Bull – CBS 4th season drama cancellations are rare.
NCIS: New Orleans, NCIS: LA, Blue Bloods, NCIS – with three veteran dramas already ending this season, and the disrupted pilot season, there is now little risk to these shows.
SEAL Team, SWAT – shows like these two that are produced by the corporate studio and end season 3 with 66 or more episodes have not been canceled in 12 years.
The Neighborhood, FBI, Young Sheldon, Magnum P.I., MacGyver, FBI: Most Wanted, Bob Hearts Abishola – ratings in the renewal range.
CW shows predicted to be canceled
CW shows predicted to be renewed
Katy Keene – default prediction for any CW show, and with the disrupted pilot season will keep this prediction as is.
Fox shows predicted to be canceled
Outmatched– ratings borderline, and Fox has very limited slots for live action sitcoms.
Fox shows predicted to be renewed
The Resident – third season shows are rarely canceled, no matter the ratings.
Family Guy, Bob’s Burgers, Last Man Standing, Prodigal Son – ratings in the renewal range, no negative issues.
NBC shows predicted to be canceled
Indebted, Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist – low ratings
NBC shows predicted to be renewed
Lincoln Rhyme: Hunt for the Bone Collector – final 3 episode ratings were decent for a Friday show. Given the disruption in in the pilot process for next season, marginal shows like Lincoln may be renewed instead of pilots that were unable to finish the process, and if NBC is going to renew a single rookie drama it’s most likely to be Lincoln.
Manifest – good enough ratings.
Good Girls – low ratings, but third season shows are rarely canceled, no matter the ratings. Netflix co-production, and history of receiving CA state tax credits are positives.
The reaper doesn’t make predictions for shows like Council of Dads and The Baker and The Beauty that air more than half their episodes in broadcast summer (May 21-) because he’d be no better at it than a coin flip!
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Are you missing the ratings information from previous prediction posts? You can view the reaper’s entire spreadsheet of ratings here.
The reaper’s running prediction tally this season: 30-5
- Right: Sunnyside, Bluff City Law, Bless The Harts, Evil, Almost Family, Emergence, Perfect Harmony, Black Lightning, Charmed, Legends of Tomorrow, Dynasty, In the Dark, Legacies, Riverdale, Roswell, NM, Supergirl, The Flash, Batwoman, Nancy Drew, New Amsterdam, The Good Doctor, Superstore, The Blacklist, Chicago PD, Chicago Med, Chicago Fire, Law & Order: SVU, Station 19, 911, 911: Lone Star
- Wrong: Fresh Off The Boat, Hawaii Five-0, Deputy, Duncanville, God Friended Me
Grey’s Anatomy, Mom, Young Sheldon,The Simpsons and This is Us were renewed for the 2020-21 season before the 2019-20 season began.
Modern Family, How To Get Away With Murder, Madam Secretary, Criminal Minds, Arrow, Supernatural, Empire, Blindspot, Will & Grace and The Good Place were canceled before the 2019-20 season began and will end in the 2019-20 season.
TV Grim Reaper’s predictions are for scripted broadcast primetime show renewals for the 2020-21 season or cancellations by the end of the 2019-20 season.