Predictions Week 1: American Housewife, Bull & MacGyver Are Certain To Be Renewed. What About Speechless, Riverdale, Lethal Weapon, Star, This Is Us & More?

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TV Grim Reaper’s predictions are for scripted broadcast primetime show renewals for the 2019-20 season or cancellations by the end of the 2018-19 season.

See all the Reaper’s past predictions here.

NetShow (Producer)Status
ABCAmerican Housewife (ABC)*certain renewal
ABCSpeechless (ABC/Fox)likely renewal
CBSBull (CBS)*certain renewal
CBSMacGyver (CBS)*certain renewal
CBSThe Big Bang Theory (WB)canceled
CWiZombie (WB)canceled
CWJane The Virgin (CBS)canceled
CWRiverdale (WB)likely renewal
FoxGotham (WB)canceled
FoxLethal Weapon (WB)likely renewal
FoxStar (Fox)likely renewal
NBCThe Good Place (NBCU)likely renewal
NBCThis Is Us (Fox)likely renewal
NBCWill & Grace (NBCU)renewed

TV Grim Reaper will bring plenty of bad news for TV show fans this season, but his first predictions of the new season are always good news!

*American Housewife, Bull, and MacGyver are certain to be renewed for a season four in 2019-20

The Fourth Season Guarantee of The Renewal Gods
All shows produced by a network’s own studio in the past eleven seasons that finished their third seasons with at least 66 episodes have been renewed for a fourth season.

American Housewife, Bull, and MacGyver should finish their third seasons with 66 or more episodes, and all are produced by their network’s in-house studio.

What about the rest of the 3rd season shows?

Third Party Productions

Speechless (Fox Studios), and This Is Us (Fox Studios) are both produced by third party studios. That fact means renewal, while still extremely highly likely, isn’t certain. Both seem destined to finish their third seasons with at least 66 episodes. Only one third party production (The Mindy Project, an NBCU production that aired on Fox) to complete 3 seasons and 66 episodes has been canceled in the last eleven seasons.

Shows That Will Finish Season 3 With Fewer than 66 Episodes

Riverdale (35 episodes), Star (30), and The Good Place (26) finished their second seasons with far fewer than 44 episodes and so will have far fewer than 66 episodes at the end of their third seasons. The predictions for each will lean towards likely renewal regardless of ratings, but, cancellations among such “fewer than 66 episode” shows are more common than from third party productions that reached 66 episodes. Most recently, Quantico was canceled after 3 seasons and 57 episodes.

Man With A Plan is a tricky case. It’s produced by CBS, and finished its second season with 43 episodes, but it’s not premiering in the Fall and its season three episode total has not been announced. If it does get =>23 episodes it’s a certain renewal, but if it produces fewer episodes in season three (as seems likely) you’ll have to stay tuned for the reaper’s initial prediction.

Why Not Both?

Lethal Weapon (WB Studios) is both produced by a third party and, with only a 13 episode order this season, will not finish season 3 with 66 episodes. It’s still leaning towards likely renewal, but stay tuned!

Recapping the renewals and cancellations already known before the start of the season.

  • Will & Grace has already been renewed for the 2019-20 season.
  • Jane The Virgin, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, iZombie, Gotham and The Big Bang Theory have been canceled and will end after the 2018-19 season.

What about the Disney/ABC acquisition of Fox Studios?

An interesting wrinkle in predictions this season is the pending Disney acquisition of Fox Studios (among other Fox assets). If it closes as planned in early 2019, at the end of this season any Fox Studios shows (currently Single Parents, Fresh Off The Boat, Speechless and Modern Family) will become “in house” productions for ABC. I considered making Speechless a “guaranteed renewal” now because of that, but will wait until the deal closes before making that change.

Week 1 predictions cover only shows entering their third season. Starting next week, predictions will expand to cover every show that has premiered this season.

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Are you missing the ratings information from previous prediction posts? You can view the reaper’s entire spreadsheet of ratings here.

The reaper’s running prediction tally this season: 

  • Right: 
  • Wrong:

Will & Grace was renewed before the season began. Jane The Virgin, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, iZombie, Gotham and The Big Bang Theory were canceled before the season began.

How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.