Predictions Week 1: Supergirl & ChicagoMed Are Certain To Be Renewed. What About Quantico, Code Black, Legends Of Tomorrow, Lucifer, Blindspot & More?

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TV Grim Reaper’s predictions are for scripted broadcast primetime show renewals for the 2018-19 season or cancellations by the end of the 2017-18 season.

See all the Reaper’s past predictions here.

Program% Renewal Chance
ABC
Scandal (ABC)canceled
The Middle (WB)canceled
Modern Family (Fox)renewed
The Goldbergs (Sony)renewed
CBS
Code Black (CBS/ABC)75%
Life in Pieces (Fox)95%
The Big Bang Theory (WB)renewed
CW
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend  (CBS)75%
DC’s Legends Of Tomorrow (WB)75%
Supergirl (WB)100%
The Originals (WB)canceled
Fox
Lucifer (WB)75%
New Girl (Fox)canceled
The Simpsons (Fox)renewed
NBC
Shades Of Blue (NBCU)75%
Superstore (NBCU)75%
Blindspot (WB)95%
Chicago Med (NBCU)100%
This Is Us (Fox)renewed
Will & Grace (NBCU)renewed


TV Grim Reaper will bring plenty of bad news for TV show fans this season, but his first predictions of the new season are always good news!

Supergirl and Chicago Med are guaranteed to be renewed for a season four in 2018-19.

Why?

The Fourth Season Guarantee of The Renewal Gods
All shows produced by a network’s own studio in the past ten seasons that finished their third seasons with at least 66 episodes have been renewed for a fourth season.

Supergirl and Chicago Med finished their second seasons with 42 and 41 episodes, and assuming third seasons of 22 episodes, will finish their third seasons with 64 and 63 episodes (close enough to 66!). Both are produced by their network’s in-house studio (WB is 50% owner of The CW).

What about the rest of the 3rd season shows?

Blindspot is produced by Warner Brothers (not NBC), and Life In Pieces is produced by Fox (not CBS). The fact that they’re produced by 3rd parties means renewal, while still very highly likely, isn’t 100% guaranteed. The reaper is starting their renewal predictions at 95%. The Mindy Project (produced by NBCU, aired by Fox)  is the only show to complete 3 seasons and 66 episodes and be canceled in the last ten seasons.

Quantico, Code Black, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Legends of Tomorrow, Lucifer, Shades Of Blue and  Superstore will have far fewer than 66 episodes at the end of their third seasons. The predictions for each will lean towards renewal regardless of ratings, but, renewal isn’t guaranteed. The reaper is starting their renewal predictions at 75%.

In news since the end of the 2016-17 season:

  • Modern Family, The Goldbergs, The Simpsons, Will & Grace, This Is Us, and The Big Bang Theory have already been renewed for the 2018-19 season.
  • Scandal, The Originals, The Middle and New Girl have been canceled and will end after the 2017-18 season.

Week 1 predictions cover only shows entering their third season. Starting next week, predictions will expand to cover every show that has premiered by the preceding Sunday night.

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New this season: Since in-house productions received far more than the typical historical advantage in Spring 2017 renewal decisions, the production company(ies) have been added after each show’s name in the table above for reference.

Where did the emojis go? Why did the prediction table change? Explained in the Week 24 post last season.

Are you missing the ratings information from previous prediction posts? You can view the reaper’s entire spreadsheet of ratings here.

The reaper’s running prediction tally this season: 

  • Right: 
  • Wrong:

Modern Family, The Goldbergs, The Simpsons, Will & Grace, This Is Us, and The Big Bang Theory were renewed before the season began. Scandal, The Originals, The Middle and New Girl were canceled before the season began.

How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.