Predictions Week 30: #iZombie Is Likely To Be Renewed

See all the Reaper’s past predictions here.

TV Grim Reaper’s predictions are for scripted broadcast primetime show renewals for the 2017-18 season or cancellations by the end of the 2016-17 season. 

ABC
Program% Renewal Chance
Secrets And Lies5%
The Real O’Neals15%
Quantico20%
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.25%
American Crime45%
Imaginary Mary45%
The Catch55%
Once Upon A Time60%
Dr. Ken80%
Fresh Off The Boat90%
Designated Survivor90%
Last Man Standing90%
American Housewife99%
Speechless99%
The Goldbergs99%
Modern Family99%
black-ish100%
Convictioncanceled
Time After Timecanceled
Notoriouscanceled
How To Get Away With Murder renewed
Scandalrenewed
The Middlerenewed
Grey’s Anatomy renewed
CBS
Program% Renewal Chance
Ransom5%
Elementary10%
The Odd Couple25%
2 Broke Girls45%
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders55%
Code Black 55%
The Great Indoors55%
Criminal Minds 65% renewed
Doubtcanceled
Training Daycanceled
Pure Geniuscanceled
Madam Secretaryrenewed
MacGyver renewed
NCIS: New Orleansrenewed
Hawaii Five-0 renewed
Blue Bloods renewed
Scorpionrenewed
Superior Donutsrenewed
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed
Life in Pieces renewed
Man With A Planrenewed
Bullrenewed
Kevin Can Waitrenewed
Momrenewed
NCIS renewed
The Big Bang Theoryrenewed
CW
Program% Renewal Chance
No Tomorrow5%
Frequency5%
The Originals45%
iZombie65%
Reign canceled
The Vampire Diaries canceled
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend renewed
Jane The Virginrenewed
The 100renewed
Riverdalerenewed
Arrowrenewed
DC’s Legends Of Tomorrowrenewed
Supernaturalrenewed
Supergirl renewed
The Flashrenewed
Fox
Program% Renewal Chance
Scream Queens 5%
Sleepy Hollow 10%
Making History10%
The Exorcist 15%
Pitch15%
APB20%
Rosewood 25%
Son of Zorn35%
New Girl45%
Shots Fired45%
24: Legacy55%
The Last Man On Earth75%
Prison Break75%
Gotham95%
Brooklyn Nine-Nine95%
Family Guy 99%
Bonescanceled
Bob’s Burgersrenewed
The Mickrenewed
Luciferrenewed
Starrenewed
Lethal Weaponrenewed
The Simpsons renewed
Empirerenewed
NBC
Program% Renewal Chance
Powerless5%
Emerald City 10%
Timeless20%
Taken20%
The Blacklist: Redemption30%
Trial And Error40%
Blindspot60%
The Blacklist75%
Chicago Justice75%
Chicago Med99%
Law & Order: SVU 99%
Chicago P.D.99%
Chicago Fire99%
Grimm canceled
Shades Of Bluerenewed
The Good Placerenewed
Superstore renewed
This Is Usrenewed


iZombie is likely to be renewed.

At the end of this season, its third, iZombie will have produced 45 episodes.

Recent history has demonstrated that the CW likes to cancels its lowest rated shows (that survive their rookie seasons) after they’ve reached 70-80 episodes produced.

  • Reign 4 seasons, 78 episodes
  • Beauty & The Beast 4 seasons, 70 episodes
  • Hart Of Dixie 4 seasons, 76 episodes
  • Nikita 4 seasons, 73 episodes

The reaper’s starting his renewal prediction for iZombie at 65% on the assumption another 25-35 episodes will be ordered, to end it in the 70-80 episode range, more than likely after 2 more seasons.

Why just a 65% chance of renewal? Compared to most of the history that the reaper bases his predictions on, the trend of low rated CW show renewals in recent seasons is a pretty small data set, and doesn’t inspire the same level of confidence that the history of s3 shows with 66 episodes getting an automatic s4 renewal does.

Where did the emojis go? Why did the prediction table change? Explained in the Week 24 post here.

Are you missing the ratings information from previous prediction posts? You can view the reaper’s entire spreadsheet of ratings here.

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The reaper’s running prediction tally this season: 43-0-2

  • Right: Notorious, The Simpsons, Conviction, Pure Genius, Jane The Virgin, Supernatural, Legends of Tomorrow, Arrow, Supergirl, The Flash, Empire, This Is Us, The Middle, The Good Place, Scandal, Greys Anatomy, How To Get Away With Murder, Lucifer, Superstore, Star, Lethal Weapon, The Mick, Doubt, The 100, Training Day, Shades Of Blue, Big Bang Theory, Superior Donuts, Life In Pieces, MacGyver, Hawaii Five-0, Blue Bloods, NCIS:LA, NCIS:NO, Man With A Plan, Kevin Can Wait, Bull, Mom, Madam Secretary, Scorpion, Time After Time, Criminal Minds
  • Wrong:
  • Draw (renewed or canceled while a toss up): Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Riverdale

Reign, canceled before the reaper had a prediction for it, is not included in the tally above.

How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.


Also published on Medium.