Predictions Week 24: #APB Is Likely To Be Canceled

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See all the Reaper’s past predictions here.

TV Grim Reaper’s predictions are for scripted broadcast primetime show renewals for the 2017-18 season or cancellations by the end of the 2016-17 season. 

ABC
Program% Renewal Chance
Secrets And Lies5%
Quantico20%
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.25%
The Real O’Neals30%
Once Upon A Time65%
Designated Survivor75%
Dr. Ken80%
Last Man Standing90%
Fresh Off The Boat90%
Speechless99%
American Housewife99%
The Goldbergs99%
Modern Family99%
black-ish100%
Convictioncanceled
Notoriouscanceled
How To Get Away With Murder renewed
The Middlerenewed
Scandalrenewed
Grey’s Anatomy renewed
CBS
Program% Renewal Chance
Ransom5%
Training Day5%
Elementary10%
The Odd Couple40%
2 Broke Girls50%
Code Black 60%
Superior Donuts65%
Criminal Minds 65%
Mom85%
Life in Pieces 85%
MacGyver 90%
Hawaii Five-0 90%
NCIS: Los Angeles 90%
Man With A Plan90%
Kevin Can Wait90%
Great Indoors90%
Blue Bloods 90%
Bull99%
The Big Bang Theory99%
Madam Secretary100%
NCIS: New Orleans100%
Scorpion100%
Pure Geniuscanceled
Doubtcanceled
NCIS renewed
CW
Program% Renewal Chance
No Tomorrow5%
Frequency5%
The 10050%
Riverdale50%
Reign canceled
The Vampire Diaries canceled
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend renewed
Jane The Virginrenewed
Arrowrenewed
Supernaturalrenewed
DC’s Legends Of Tomorrowrenewed
Supergirl renewed
The Flashrenewed
Fox
Program% Renewal Chance
Scream Queens 5%
Sleepy Hollow 10%
The Exorcist 15%
Pitch15%
Rosewood 25%
APB30%
Son of Zorn50%
24: Legacy55%
The Last Man On Earth75%
New Girl90%
Gotham95%
Brooklyn Nine-Nine95%
Family Guy 99%
Bonescanceled
The Mickrenewed
Bob’s Burgersrenewed
Luciferrenewed
Starrenewed
Lethal Weaponrenewed
The Simpsons renewed
Empirerenewed
NBC
Program% Renewal Chance
Emerald City 10%
Timeless20%
Powerless20%
The Blacklist: Redemption30%
Blindspot50%
The Blacklist60%
Chicago Med99%
Chicago P.D.99%
Law & Order: SVU 99%
Chicago Fire99%
Grimm canceled
The Good Placerenewed
Superstore renewed
This Is Usrenewed


APB is likely to be canceled.

After one week APB ratings were good, after two they were OK, but week three’s ratings (0.8) has the reaper predicting only a 30% chance of renewal.

Blacklist: Redemption’s premiere rating has the reaper starting it at only a 30% chance of renewal as well.

Last week the reaper moved Son of Zorn to “toss up” (or now a 50% renewal likelihood) both because of its declining 2017 ratings and because as a semi-animated show it’s got a much longer production lead time than live action shows. Given that it hasn’t already been renewed, its chances for renewal diminish by the week. Expect future downgrades as time passes.

The reaper also moved 2 Broke Girls to a 50% likelihood of renewal last week. While its ratings are fine (106% of the CBS scripted average), it’s old/expensive and produced by Warner Brothers. The exact same situation that Mike & Molly was in last season when it was canceled. Also, with only The Odd Couple as a current likely canceled sitcom, room needs to be cleared out for next year’s new sitcoms.

Blindspot was moved to a 50%  likelihood of renewal last week because of it’s recent relative ratings deterioration.

While the reaper has traditionally used renewal percentage predictions in his final post of the season, for a variety of reasons he decided to move to that format now. Among them, clarity and simplicity of the prediction table, particularly on mobile devices. A “% renewal” prediction also conveys more information than the now retired emojis.

While small differences in renewal % predictions are somewhat arbitrary, you may take <50% as “likely to be canceled”, 50% as “toss up”, and >50% to be “likely to be renewed”. That’s how the reaper will score his predictions. View the “distance” from 50% as the reaper’s confidence level in a particular prediction.

The only shows predicted as 100% likely to be renewed are those with fourth season guarantees from the Syndication Gods. While other shows, like Modern Family, are virtually certain to be renewed, the reaper wanted to make a distinction among those shows with a season four renewal guarantee.

Are you missing the ratings information from previous prediction posts? You can view the reaper’s entire spreadsheet of ratings here. Address any questions via Twitter @TVGrimReaper.

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The reaper’s running prediction tally this season: 23-0-1

  • Right: Notorious, The Simpsons, Conviction, Pure Genius, Jane The Virgin, Supernatural, Legends of Tomorrow, Arrow, Supergirl, The Flash, Empire, This Is Us, The Middle, The Good Place, Scandal, Greys Anatomy, How To Get Away With Murder, Lucifer, Superstore, Star, Lethal Weapon, The Mick, Doubt
  • Wrong:
  • Draw (renewed or canceled while a toss up): Crazy Ex-Girlfriend

Reign, canceled before the reaper had a prediction for it, is not included in the tally above.

How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.