Predictions Week 5: #NoTomorrow & #Notorious Are Likely To Be Canceled

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See all the Reaper’s past predictions here.

TV Grim Reaper’s predictions are for scripted broadcast primetime show renewals for the 2017-18 season or cancellations by the end of the 2016-17 season. (The table below includes ratings from Sept. 19, 2016 – Oct. 16, 2016)

ABC avg

ABC

1.46

ProgramStatus

% ABC avg

18-49 Avg

Conviction😥 😥

58%

0.85

Dr. Ken  (F)😐 😐 😐

60%

0.88

Secrets And Lies😥 😥

64%

0.93

Quantico😐 😐 😐

64%

0.93

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.😐 😐 😐

66%

0.97

Notorious😥 😥

67%

0.98

Last Man Standing  (F)🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

73%

1.08

Once Upon A Time🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

80%

1.18

The Real O’Neals🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

82%

1.20

How To Get Away With Murder 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

85%

1.25

Fresh Off The Boat:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

109%

1.60

Designated Survivor:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

123%

1.80

The Middle:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

123%

1.80

Speechless:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

126%

1.85

black-ish:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

126%

1.85

American Housewife🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

130%

1.90

The Goldbergs:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

130%

1.90

Grey’s Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

157%

2.30

Modern Family:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

162%

2.38

CBS avg

CBS

1.69

ProgramStatus

% CBS avg

18-49 Avg

Elementary😥 😥

44%

0.75

Madam Secretary:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

65%

1.10

Code Black 😐 😐 😐

65%

1.10

Blue Bloods (F)🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

74%

1.25

MacGyver (F)🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

77%

1.30

Hawaii Five-0 (F)🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

77%

1.30

NCIS: New Orleans:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

81%

1.37

Scorpion:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

83%

1.40

NCIS: Los Angeles 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

85%

1.43

Criminal Minds 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

98%

1.67

2 Broke Girls🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

100%

1.70

Bull:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

112%

1.90

NCIS renewed

118%

2.00

Kevin Can Wait🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

142%

2.40

The Big Bang Theory:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

211%

3.58

CW avg

CW

0.70

ProgramStatus

% CW avg

18-49 Avg

No Tomorrow😥 😥

50%

0.35

Frequency😐 😐 😐

50%

0.35

DC’s Legends Of Tomorrow🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

86%

0.60

Arrow🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

100%

0.70

Supernatural:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

114%

0.80

Supergirl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

157%

1.10

The Flash:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

171%

1.20

Jane The Virgin:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The Vampire Diaries (F)canceled

Fox avg

Fox

1.39

ProgramStatus

% Fox avg

18-49 Avg

The Exorcist (F)😐 😐 😐

54%

0.75

Scream Queens 😐 😐 😐

57%

0.80

Rosewood😐 😐 😐

57%

0.80

Pitch😐 😐 😐

70%

0.98

The Last Man On Earth😐 😐 😐

72%

1.00

Brooklyn Nine-Nine🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

72%

1.00

New Girl🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

74%

1.03

Lucifer🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

81%

1.13

Bob’s Burgersrenewed

82%

1.15

Gotham🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

82%

1.15

Son of Zorn🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

100%

1.40

Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

110%

1.53

Lethal Weapon:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

140%

1.95

The Simpsons :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

154%

2.15

Empire:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

265%

3.70

Bonescanceled

NBC avg

NBC

1.50

ProgramStatus

% NBC avg

18-49 Avg

The Blacklist🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

78%

1.18

Blindspot🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

83%

1.25

Chicago Med🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

88%

1.33

The Good Place🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

88%

1.33

Superstore 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

90%

1.35

Chicago P.D.🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

98%

1.48

Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

103%

1.55

Timeless🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

107%

1.60

Chicago Fire:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

120%

1.80

This Is Us:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

182%

2.73


No Tomorrow is likely to be canceled. After a mediocre (for the CW) 0.5 premiere rating, episode 2 dove to just a 0.2 rating. Even on the “we renew all our dreck” CW, that’s likely to be canceled.

Notorious is likely to be canceled. Its ratings started relatively low, but held steady in week 2 which improved its relative position and the reaper moved it to a “toss up” prediction. Then its ratings fell in both weeks 3 and 4, and the show’s now back in the “likely canceled” range.

Lethal Weapon is certain to be renewed. Its ratings have held at over 140% of Fox’s scripted average. Compare that to Rosewood which drew just 109% of Fox’s average in Fall 2015 in the same time slot and was renewed.

Bull has also been upgraded to certain to be renewed. Even with the dip last week, its ratings were above the CBS scripted average for the week.

While the ratings for both The Exorcist and Scream Queens have been woeful, Fox scripted ratings are still falling nearly across the board and neither are that far off the current Fox median rating.

Housekeeping: The observant will note that the “% of avg”, and “18-49 avg” columns have swapped positions. Given that the “% of avg” is the more important, the reaper thought it should be closer to the show name. Calculations remain the same.

Note: Early season predictions are likely to change quickly with ratings results. Stay tuned.

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The reaper’s running prediction tally this season: 

  • Right:
  • Wrong:
  • Draw (renewed or canceled while a toss up):


Status:
status-resized

Notes:
18-49 Avg. is the average Live+Same Day adults 18-49 rating for in season original episodes of a show it its regular timeslot.

Network average is the average Live+Same Day adults 18-49 rating for all original episodes of all scripted shows on the network. Each network’s ratings average is not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

% Network Average (relative rating): The 18-49 avg of a show/its own network avg.

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average relative ratings.

How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.