Predictions Week 3: #SecretsAndLies & #Elementary Are Likely To Be Canceled; #Pitch & #Notorious Now “Toss Ups”

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See all the Reaper’s past predictions here.

TV Grim Reaper’s predictions are for scripted broadcast primetime show renewals for the 2017-18 season or cancellations by the end of the 2016-17 season. (The table below includes ratings from Sept. 19, 2016 – Oct. 2, 2016)

ABC avg

ABC

1.52

ProgramStatus

18-49 Avg

% ABC avg

Dr. Ken  (F)😐 😐 😐

0.85

56%

Secrets And Lies😥 😥

0.95

62%

Quantico😐 😐 😐

1.00

66%

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.😐 😐 😐

1.00

66%

Last Man Standing  (F)🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.05

69%

Notorious😐 😐 😐

1.10

72%

Once Upon A Time🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.20

79%

How To Get Away With Murder 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.35

89%

Speechless🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.90

125%

The Goldbergs:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.95

128%

Designated Survivor🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

2.00

131%

black-ish:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

2.05

135%

Modern Family:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

2.45

161%

Grey’s Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

2.45

161%

CBS avg

CBS

1.84

ProgramStatus

18-49 Avg

% CBS avg

Elementary😥 😥

0.80

44%

Madam Secretary:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.10

60%

Code Black 😐 😐 😐

1.20

65%

Blue Bloods (F)🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.30

71%

Hawaii Five-0 (F)🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.35

74%

NCIS: New Orleans:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.45

79%

NCIS: Los Angeles 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.50

82%

MacGyver (F)🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.55

84%

Criminal Minds 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.90

103%

Bull🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

2.05

112%

NCIS renewed

2.15

117%

Kevin Can Wait🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

2.65

144%

The Big Bang Theory:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

3.70

201%

Scorpion:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

CW avg

CW
ProgramStatus

18-49 Avg

% CW avg

Jane The Virgin:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The Flash:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The Vampire Diaries (F)canceled

Fox avg

Fox

1.42

ProgramStatus

18-49 Avg

% Fox avg

Rosewood😥 😥

0.75

53%

Scream Queens 😐 😐 😐

0.85

60%

The Exorcist (F)😐 😐 😐

0.85

60%

The Last Man On Earth😐 😐 😐

0.95

67%

Brooklyn Nine-Nine😐 😐 😐

1.05

74%

Pitch😐 😐 😐

1.05

74%

Bob’s Burgersrenewed

1.10

77%

New Girl🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.10

77%

Gotham:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.25

88%

Lucifer:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.30

91%

Son of Zorn🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.35

95%

Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.45

102%

The Simpsons :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

2.00

141%

Lethal Weapon🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

2.10

148%

Empire:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

3.95

278%

Bonescanceled

NBC avg

NBC

1.57

ProgramStatus

18-49 Avg

% NBC avg

The Blacklist🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.20

76%

Blindspot🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.30

83%

The Good Place🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.35

86%

Chicago Med🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.35

86%

Superstore 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.40

89%

Chicago P.D.🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.55

99%

Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.70

108%

This Is Us🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

2.70

172%

Grimm (F)canceled


Secrets and Lies and Elementary are likely to be canceled.

Elementary’s premiere ratings put it at the bottom of the CBS scripted shows, by a wide margin. That doesn’t indicate longevity.

After two weeks, Secrets and Lies is ABC’s lowest rated non-Friday show. This season is likely its last.

While Notorious ratings started low, they were steady in week 2. Its 1.1 week 2 rating was 92% of ABC’s week 2 scripted average. The reaper’s moving it to a toss up.

Similar story with Pitch. While its week two ratings did decline, at 1.0 they were right at the Fox scripted median rating for the week. The reaper has moved it to a toss up.

As the reaper always notes, early season predictions are likely to change quickly with ratings results. Stay tuned.

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The reaper’s running prediction tally this season: 

  • Right:
  • Wrong:
  • Draw (renewed or canceled while a toss up):


Status:
status-resized

Notes:
18-49 Avg. is the average Live+Same Day adults 18-49 rating for in season original episodes of a show it its regular timeslot.

Network average is the average Live+Same Day adults 18-49 rating for all original episodes of all scripted shows on the network. Each network’s ratings average is not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

% Network Average (relative rating): The 18-49 avg of a show/its own network avg.

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average relative ratings.

How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.