Predictions Week 2: #Notorious, #Rosewood & #Pitch Are Likely To Be Canceled

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See all the Reaper’s past predictions here.

week-2-copy
TV Grim Reaper’s predictions are for scripted broadcast primetime show renewals for the 2017-18 season or cancellations by the end of the 2016-17 season. (The table below includes ratings from Sept. 19, 2016 – Sept. 25, 2016)

ABC avg

ABC

1.61

ProgramStatus

18-49 Avg

% ABC avg

Dr. Ken  (F)😐 😐 😐

0.90

56%

Secrets And Lies😐 😐 😐

1.00

62%

Quantico😐 😐 😐

1.00

62%

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.😐 😐 😐

1.10

68%

Last Man Standing  (F)🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.10

68%

Notorious😥 😥

1.10

68%

Once Upon A Time🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.20

74%

How To Get Away With Murder 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.40

87%

Speechless🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

2.00

124%

The Goldbergs🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

2.00

124%

Designated Survivor🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

2.20

136%

black-ish:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

2.50

155%

Grey’s Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

2.50

155%

Modern Family:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

2.60

161%

CBS avg

CBS

1.99

ProgramStatus

18-49 Avg

% CBS avg

Hawaii Five-0 (F)🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.30

65%

Blue Bloods (F)🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.30

65%

NCIS: New Orleans:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.40

70%

NCIS: Los Angeles 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.40

70%

MacGyver (F)🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.70

85%

NCIS already renewed

2.20

111%

Bull🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

2.20

111%

Kevin Can Wait🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

2.60

131%

The Big Bang Theory:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

3.80

191%

Madam Secretary:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Scorpion:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

CW avg

CW
ProgramStatus

18-49 Avg

% CW avg

Jane The Virgin:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The Flash:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The Vampire Diaries (F)already canceled

Fox avg

Fox

1.43

ProgramStatus

18-49 Avg

% Fox avg

Rosewood😥 😥

0.70

49%

The Last Man On Earth😐 😐 😐

0.90

63%

Scream Queens 😐 😐 😐

1.00

70%

The Exorcist (F)😐 😐 😐

1.00

70%

Brooklyn Nine-Nine😐 😐 😐

1.10

77%

Pitch😥 😥

1.10

77%

New Girl🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.20

84%

Son of Zorn🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.20

84%

Gotham:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.30

91%

Lucifer:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.30

91%

Bob’s Burgersalready renewed

1.30

91%

Family Guy 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.40

98%

The Simpsons 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.60

112%

Lethal Weapon🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

2.20

153%

Empire:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

4.20

293%

Bonesalready canceled

NBC avg

NBC

1.64

ProgramStatus

18-49 Avg

% NBC avg

Blindspot🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.30

79%

The Blacklist🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.30

79%

The Good Place🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.40

85%

Chicago Med🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.40

85%

Superstore 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.50

92%

Chicago P.D.:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.60

98%

Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.80

110%

This Is Us🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

2.80

171%

Grimm (F)already canceled


Notorious, Rosewood and Pitch are likely to be canceled.

Rosewood was, by far, Fox’s lowest rated show in premiere week. Away from the Empire tune-in audience, its ratings on Thursday crashed. Even for sophomore show, that puts it in danger.

While Pitch’s relative rating might be survivable for a veteran show, for a rookie it makes its survival unlikely.

Notorious ratings started at just 68% of ABC’s week one scripted average. Veteran shows might survive at that relative ratings level, freshman Notorious likely won’t survive with it.

Predictions can change as the relative ratings for a show change. That’s particularly likely early in a show’s run. Stay tuned.

No matter how high the ratings for a rookie show premiere are, the reaper waits several weeks before moving it higher than “likely to be renewed”.

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The reaper’s running prediction tally this season: 

  • Right:
  • Wrong:
  • Draw (renewed or canceled while a toss up):


Status:
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Notes:
18-49 Avg. is the average Live+Same Day adults 18-49 rating for in season original episodes of a show it its regular timeslot.

Network average is the average Live+Same Day adults 18-49 rating for all original episodes of all scripted shows on the network. Each network’s ratings average is not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

% Network Average (relative rating): The 18-49 avg of a show/its own network avg.

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average relative ratings.

How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.