Predictions Week 1: #blackish, #MadamSecretary, #Scorpion, #NCISNewOrleans, #JaneTheVirgin & #TheFlash Are Certain To Be Renewed

Posted by

week-one
TV Grim Reaper’s predictions are for scripted broadcast primetime show renewals for the 2017-18 season or cancellations by the end of the 2016-17 season.

See all the Reaper’s past predictions here.

ABC
ProgramStatus
black-ish:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
American Crime?
Fresh Off The Boat?
How To Get Away With Murder ?
CBS
ProgramStatus
Madam Secretary:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Scorpion:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
NCIS: New Orleans:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
NCISalready renewed
The Odd Couple?
CW
ProgramStatus
Jane The Virgin:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The Flash:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The Vampire Diaries (F)already canceled
iZombie ?
Fox
ProgramStatus
Gotham🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Bob’s Burgersalready renewed
Bonesalready canceled
The Last Man On Earth?
Empire?
NBC
ProgramStatus
The Carmichael Show?
Grimm (F)already canceled


TV Grim Reaper will bring plenty of bad news for TV show fans this season, but his first predictions of the new season are always good news!

Six scripted broadcast shows (black-ish, Madam Secretary, Scorpion, NCIS:New Orleans, Jane The Virgin and The Flash) are guaranteed to be renewed for a season four in 2017-18.

Why?

Each of those shows finished their second seasons with at least 44 episodes, and should have a full season of 22 episodes in their third seasons to finish with at least 66 episodes after three seasons (JtV will have 20 for a total of 64, close enough). All of them are also produced by their network’s own studio.

That leads to the following guarantee:

The Guarantee of The Syndication Gods
No show produced by a network’s own studio in the past nine seasons that finished its third season with at least 66 episodes has failed to be renewed for a fourth season.

What about Gotham?

Gotham finished its second season with 44 episodes, and will reach 66 at the end of this season, why isn’t its season four renewal just as certain? Because Gotham is produced by Warner Brothers and not Fox. In cases like this, there’s a second rule the reaper follows…

The Very Strong Suggestion Of The Syndication Gods
A show that finishes its third season with at least 66 episodes, but isn’t produced by the network’s own studio, is very likely but not certain to be renewed for a fourth season. If canceled, it’s very likely to get a fourth season elsewhere.

Note: The only show to complete 3 seasons and 66 episodes and be canceled in the last nine seasons (The Mindy Project, produced by NBCU) was picked up by Hulu after being canceled by Fox. Others (like Cougar Town) to finish three seasons with fewer than 66 were also picked up elsewhere.

What about all the shows that won’t have 66 episodes at the end of their third season? 

None of these third season shows: Fresh Off The Boat, American Crime, How To Get Away With Murder, The Odd Couple, iZombie, The Last Man On Earth, Empire or The Carmichael Show will have close to 66 episodes at the end of their third seasons.

Because they won’t have 66 episodes, there’s no guarantee of a fourth season. They might be renewed, they might not. As with all other shows, the reaper will wait for the season three ratings before predicting. (Of course, it would be shocking if the ratings fell enough to put some in danger of cancellation, like Empire, they just don’t fit the “guaranteed renewal” rules of the Syndication Gods.)

These week 1 predictions cover only shows entering their third season. Starting next week, the reaper’s predictions will expand to cover every show that has premiered by the preceding Sunday night.

Catching up on old news, NCIS and Bob’s Burgers have already been renewed for 2017-18.

Finally, The Vampire Diaries, Grimm and Bones were announced to be in in their final seasons, or in other words “already canceled”.

Follow TV Grim Reaper on Twitter, Facebook, InstagramTumblr, Google+, MediumEmail or RSS.

The reaper’s running tally on his predictions this season: 

  • Right:
  • Wrong:
  • Draw (renewed or canceled while a toss up):


Status:

😳certain to be cancelled by May, 2017
😥 😥more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2017
😐 😐 😐toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2017
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2017
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:certain to be renewed by May, 2017

Notes:
18-49 Avg. is the average Live+Same Day adults 18-49 rating for all original episodes of a show.

Network average is the average Live+Same Day adults 18-49 rating for all original episodes of all scripted shows on the network. Each network’s ratings average is not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

% Network Average (relative rating): The 18-49 avg of a show/its own network avg.

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average relative ratings.

How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.