Predicting the renewal and cancellation of TV shows isn’t as hard as the TV media would have you believe.
- The adults 18-49 ratings relative to other scripted shows on the same network. Shows with ratings 15-20% below the networks scripted average rating are likely to be renewed. Shows with ratings above the network average rating are virtually a lock for renewal. The reaper calculates those relative ratings by averaging the new episode ratings for each scripted show for each network and dividing by the network’s overall scripted show ratings average.
- Syndication status, How many episodes of the show has been produced? Depending on how many episodes have been produced, syndication economics may compel renewal at almost any ratings level.
- Production company. Shows produced by the network’s in-house studio (i.e. ABC Studios for ABC) have an advantage over shows produced by a third party studio (i.e. Sony for ABC).
What doesn’t matter:
- Ratings vs. shows on other networks, including “winning” a timeslot.
- Total viewership
- Critic reviews, awards and plenty of other things the TV media will write about.
TV Grim Reaper has been able to maintain a correct prediction rate of 90% or better on an annual basis. The reaper predicts from week one of the season, not like those who predict in April, when things are mostly obvious.
Fans wanting to see where their favorite broadcast scripted shows stack up on a relative basis vs. the other shows on their network can read TV Grim Reaper’s predictions every Monday during the US broadcast TV season (late Sept – mid May). TV Grim Reaper will have a new prediction post every week (minus holiday weeks) with updated renewal and cancellation predictions.
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