ABC Predictions: Can Both ‘Castle’ & ‘Nashville’ Get Renewed?

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See all the Reaper’s ABC predictions here.

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TV Grim Reaper predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2015-16 season in May, 2016. (The Reaper Index includes ratings from Dec 27, 2015 – Apr 10, 2016)

ProgramStatus

Reaper Index

Wicked City*canceled

0.39

Galavant*😥 😥

0.46

Of Kings And Prophets*canceled

0.47

Blood & Oil*canceled

0.57

Agent Carter*😥 😥

0.59

The Muppets*😥 😥

0.61

The Family😳 

0.62

Nashville😐 😐 😐

0.67

American Crime*🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

0.67

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.renewed

0.72

Quanticorenewed

0.75

Dr. Ken (F)🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

0.75

Castle 😐 😐 😐

0.76

The Catch😐 😐 😐

0.81

Once Upon A Timerenewed

0.85

Last Man Standing (F):mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

0.87

Fresh Off The Boatrenewed

0.91

The Real O’Neals😐 😐 😐

0.93

How To Get Away With Murder*renewed

1.10

Scandalrenewed

1.28

The Middlerenewed

1.35

black-ishrenewed

1.36

The Goldbergsrenewed

1.48

Grey’s Anatomy renewed

1.60

Modern Familyrenewed

1.86


Can both Castle and Nashville, ABC’s lowest rated veteran full season shows both be renewed?

The odds are against it.

Given that one rookie drama, Quantico, has already been renewed it’s likely that at least one “veteran” drama will be canceled.

Last season, after its season 4,  Revenge was canceled, but its relative ratings were far lower than even Nashville’s are this season.

ABC might find a way to keep both around. No matter what happens, the reaper will move his predictions from “toss up” no later than May 10.

The reaper’s running tally on ABC shows this season: 

Right: Blood & Oil, Wicked City, Once Upon A Time, The Goldbergs, Fresh Off The Boat, blackish, Grey’s Anatomy, Scandal, How to Get Away With Murder, Agents of SHIELD, Modern Family, The Middle, Of Kings and Prophets

Wrong:

Draw/Tie/Push: (renewed or canceled while a toss up): Quantico

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*shows no longer on the air have their Reaper Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

😳certain to be cancelled by May, 2016
😥 😥more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2016
😐 😐 😐toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2016
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:certain to be renewed by May, 2016


The Reaper Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.