ABC Predictions: Is ‘Castle’ Getting Canceled? Or Might It Get A Short Final Season Like ‘Bones’?

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See all the Reaper’s ABC predictions here.

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TV Grim Reaperย predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2015-16 season in May, 2016. (The Reaper Index includes ratings from Decย 27, 2015 – Feb 28, 2016)

ProgramStatus

Reaper Index

Wicked City*canceled

0.39

Galavant*๐Ÿ˜ฅ ๐Ÿ˜ฅ

0.46

Blood & Oil*canceled

0.57

The Muppets๐Ÿ˜ฅ ๐Ÿ˜ฅ

0.59

Agent Carter๐Ÿ˜ฅ ๐Ÿ˜ฅ

0.59

American Crime๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ˜

0.68

Castle ๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ˜

0.70

Dr. Ken (F)๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚

0.75

Last Man Standing (F)๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚

0.87

Fresh Off The Boat๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚

0.91

How To Get Away With Murder:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.14

black-ish:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.33

Scandal:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.33

The Middle:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.36

The Goldbergs:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.43

Grey’s Anatomy ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚

1.59

Modern Family:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

1.84

Nashville๐Ÿ˜ฅ ๐Ÿ˜ฅ
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Quantico๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ˜
Once Upon A Time๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚


Those paying attention, will note the Bones renewal last week which was the reaper’s first prediction miss of the season!

Could the same happen to Castle? The reaper thinks it could.

  • The two shows situations are quite similar (and based on the reaper’s experience so are their Twitter fan bases):
  • Old/expensive: Castle season 8, Bones season 11
  • Two leads needing contract extensions.
  • Produced by their network’s in house studios.
  • Among the lowest rated shows on each network.

That’s one reason the reaper’s still got the show a toss up.

The reaper’s running tally on ABCย shows this season:ย 

Right:ย Blood & Oil, Wicked City

Wrong:

Push: (renewed or canceled while a toss up):ย 

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*shows no longer on the air have their Reaperย Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

๐Ÿ˜ณcertain to be cancelled by May,ย 2016
๐Ÿ˜ฅ ๐Ÿ˜ฅmore likely to be cancelled than renewed by May,ย 2016
๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ˜ ๐Ÿ˜toss up between renewal or cancellation by May,ย 2016
๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May,ย 2016
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:certain to be renewed by May,ย 2016


Theย Reaperย Indexย is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How good haveย TV Grim Reaper’s predictions beenย in past seasons?ย Seeย his past prediction record here.