TV Grim Reaper predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2015-16 season in May, 2016. (The Reaper Index includes ratings from Sept. 21, 2015 – Oct 25, 2015)
|Sleepy Hollow||😥 😥||0.54|
|The Grinder||😥 😥||0.64|
|Grandfathered||😐 😐 😐||0.70|
|Bones||😐 😐 😐||0.75|
|Scream Queens||😐 😐 😐||0.75|
|The Last Man On Earth||😐 😐 😐||0.77|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.95|
|Rosewood||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.10|
During each broadcast TV season ratings typically peak in premiere week and then drift lower during the entire season in fits and starts. The reaper’s used to that, and his prediction methods generally take it into account.
What’s happened to Fox ratings this season is atypical, they’ve completely collapsed across the entire schedule, and it caused the reaper to get a little ahead of himself on a couple predictions that he’s now revising upwards.
Fox’s scripted ratings average** in week 1 was a 2.06, in week 4 it was a 1.38. Down 33%. That’s not typical. That’s catastrophic.
In week 4, the median (same number of shows above and below) Fox scripted show rating was a 1.0. (vs. the average of 1.38, thanks mostly to Empire).
The reaper hasn’t encountered such a drastic collapse in ratings before in such a short period of time, but he’s hesitant to predict cancellation for a show at the network’s median rating.
And since ratings relative to other shows on the same network are what matter for renewal and cancellation, he’s moved Grandfathered up to a “toss up”, and The Grinder up to “likely canceled” from “certain to be canceled”.
** not taking into account show length, 30 min shows count the same as 60 min.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Reaper Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2016|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2016|
The Reaper Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.