TV Grim Reaper predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2015-16 season in May, 2016. (The Reaper Index includes ratings from Sept. 21, 2015 – Oct 4, 2015)
|Minority Report||😳 (canceled 10/9)||0.51|
|Sleepy Hollow||😥 😥||0.51|
|Bob’s Burgers||😐 😐 😐 (renewed 10/7)||0.61|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.71|
|The Last Man On Earth||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.74|
|Grandfathered||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.76|
|The Grinder||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.76|
|Scream Queens||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.79|
|Brooklyn Nine-Nine||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.87|
|The Simpsons||already renewed||1.07|
|Rosewood||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.12|
10/9 update: The episode order for Minority Report has been reduced from 13 to 10, canceling the show.
Shows that end their third season with 66 episodes, and are produced by the network that airs them, are guaranteed a fourth season by the Syndication Gods.
Unfortunately for Sleepy Hollow, its first two seasons were short ones totaling only 31 episodes (vs. the “normal” 44). Because of that, it’s not guaranteed a season 4, even though Fox produces it.
Sleepy Hollow’s terrible premiere ratings in most cases would put it immediately into “certain cancellation” territory, but given that it’s a third season show produced by Fox, the reaper will bide his time and start it as “likely to be canceled”.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Reaper Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2016|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2016|
The Reaper Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.