TV Grim Reaper predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2015-16 season in May, 2016. (The Reaper Index includes ratings from Sept. 21, 2015 – Sept 27, 2015)
|Reign (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂|
The CW still hasn’t premiered any shows in the 2015-16 season, so the Reaper’s just biding his time.
Reign was the lowest rated renewed show on the CW last spring by a wide margin. Its pitiful 0.35 Live+Same Day adults 18-49 ratings average was 29% below the next lowest rated show (The 100).
The reason that it’s back for a third season is likely why it’ll be back for a fourth. It was the only non-rookie show on the CW produced by CW co-owner CBS last season. (Last season’s rookie Jane The Virgin is also CBS produced.)
Why not guaranteed a fourth season like many 3rd season shows? Its third season episode order was reportedly reduced from 22 to 18 episodes. That puts its three season total at just 62 episodes, not the 66 that would guarantee renewal. Still, the fact that the episode order was reduced is in itself a warning sign.
Even so, the Reaper’s not betting against it at this point.
The rest of the CW shows will get predictions once their air. Third season shows are special cases which allow the Reaper to predict in advance.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Reaper Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2016|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2016|
The Reaper Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.