TV Grim Reaper predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2015-16 season in May, 2016. (The Reaper Index includes ratings from Sept. 21, 2015 – Sept 27, 2015)
|Last Man Standing (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.51|
|Nashville||😐 😐 😐||0.56|
|Castle||😐 😐 😐||0.56|
|Blood & Oil||😥 😥||0.65|
|Once Upon A Time||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.84|
|Fresh Off The Boat||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.89|
|Quantico||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.89|
|The Middle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|How To Get Away With Murder||1.21|
|Grey’s Anatomy||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.30|
|The Muppets||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.35|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.|
Blood & Oil premiere ratings put it in the range that make it likely to be canceled. The Reaper thought about going directly to “certain to be canceled”, but he’s got 30+ more weeks of ABC headlines to write and he’ll keep his powder dry.
No other rookie shows seem in immediate danger. Both Castle and Last Man Standing premiered with very low ratings. Their fates will be interesting for the Reaper to predict.
Late 9/29 Edit: The reaper has Grey’s Anatomy as just “likely renewed” because to the best of his knowledge all the main cast contracts expire at the end of this season. That introduces a certain level of risk to renewal no matter the ratings.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Reaper Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2016|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2016|
The Reaper Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.