NBC Predictions: ‘The Blacklist’ Is Certain To Be Renewed, But What About ‘Chicago P.D.’ & ‘The Night Shift’?

See all the Reaper’s NBC predictions here.


TV Grim Reaper predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2015-16 season in May, 2016.

The Night Shift?
The Blacklist:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Chicago P.D.🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

Edited: 9/22 to include The Blacklist guarantee.

The TV Grim Reaper will bring plenty of bad news for TV show fans this season, but his first predictions of the new season are always good news!

The Blacklist is certain to be renewed for a fourth season.


The (Recently Updated) Guarantee of The Syndication Gods
No show produced by a network’s own studio (TBL is produced by NBCU/Sony), in the past eight seasons that finished its third season with at least 66 episodes has failed to get renewed for a fourth season.

While it’s highly likely, why isn’t Chicago P.D. a guaranteed season four renewal?

While Chicago P.D. is produced by NBCU, it will only have ~60 episodes at the end of its third season, not the 66+ that guarantees a fourth season. Still, given the weak state of the rest of NBC’s dramas it’s as close to a guarantee short of being one.

And while The Night Shift is beginning its third season, it has two strikes against a guaranteed fourth season. First, it’s produced by Sony, not NBCU. Second, after two short seasons, it will end its third season with only ~44 episodes, which is the “normal” number after just two full seasons. If the Night Shift is renewed for 22 episodes for the 2016-17 season, then the Syndication Gods will strongly suggest a fifth season in 2017-18.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Reaper Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.


😳certain to be cancelled by May, 2016
😥 😥more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2016
😐 😐 😐toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2016
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:certain to be renewed by May, 2016

The Reaper Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.