TV Grim Reaper predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2015-16 season in May, 2016.
Edited 9/21 1:20 PDT to reflect new information about Reign season three episode order removing it from the guarantee of a fourth season.
The TV Grim Reaper will bring plenty of bad news for TV show fans this season, but his first predictions of the new season are always good news!
The Originals is certain to be renewed a fourth season
The (Recently Updated) Guarantee of The Syndication Gods
No show produced by a network’s own studio (All CW scripted shows are produced by CW network owners CBS or WB), in the past eight seasons that finished its third season with at least 66 episodes has failed to get renewed for a fourth season.
What about Reign?
Originally, the season 3 order for Reign was 22 episodes, which would have guaranteed a season 4 renewal, but it’s now apparently been reduced to 18 episodes. Unless that order gets increased, it will finish season three with only 62 episodes. That removes the guaranteed fourth season that comes with 66 episodes, and its fate will be predicted just like any other show.
What about The 100?
While The 100 is entering its third season, its first two seasons only included 29 episodes (vs. the “standard” 44 episodes). Because of that, it won’t reach the 66 episodes at the end of season three which would guarantee a season four renewal.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Reaper Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2016|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2016|
The Reaper Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.