Full List Of All Canceled And Renewed Broadcast Scripted Shows For The 2016-17 Season

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See all the Reaper’s past predictions here.

ABC
Program% Renewal Chance
American Crimecanceled
Convictioncanceled
Dr. Kencanceled
Imaginary Marycanceled
Last Man Standingcanceled
Notoriouscanceled
Secrets And Liescanceled
The Catchcanceled
The Real O’Nealscanceled
Time After Timecanceled
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.renewed
American Housewiferenewed
black-ishrenewed
Designated Survivorrenewed
Fresh Off The Boatrenewed
Grey’s Anatomy renewed
How To Get Away With Murder renewed
Modern Familyrenewed
Once Upon A Timerenewed
Quanticorenewed
Scandalrenewed
Speechlessrenewed
The Goldbergsrenewed
The Middlerenewed
CBS
Program% Renewal Chance
2 Broke Girlscanceled
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borderscanceled
Doubtcanceled
Pure Geniuscanceled
Ransomcanceled
The Great Indoorscanceled
The Odd Couplecanceled
Training Daycanceled
Blue Bloods renewed
Bullrenewed
Code Black renewed
Criminal Minds renewed
Elementaryrenewed
Hawaii Five-0 renewed
Kevin Can Waitrenewed
Life in Pieces renewed
MacGyver renewed
Madam Secretaryrenewed
Man With A Planrenewed
Momrenewed
NCIS renewed
NCIS: Los Angeles renewed
NCIS: New Orleansrenewed
Scorpionrenewed
Superior Donutsrenewed
The Big Bang Theoryrenewed
CW
Program% Renewal Chance
Frequencycanceled
No Tomorrowcanceled
Reign canceled
The Vampire Diaries canceled
Arrowrenewed
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend renewed
DC’s Legends Of Tomorrowrenewed
iZombierenewed
Jane The Virginrenewed
Riverdalerenewed
Supergirl renewed
Supernaturalrenewed
The 100renewed
The Flashrenewed
The Originalsrenewed
Fox
Program% Renewal Chance
APBcanceled
Bonescanceled
Making Historycanceled
Pitchcanceled
Rosewood canceled
Scream Queens canceled
Shots Firedcanceled
Sleepy Hollow canceled
Son of Zorncanceled
24: Legacymaybe later
Prison Breakmaybe later
Bob’s Burgersrenewed
Brooklyn Nine-Ninerenewed
Empirerenewed
Family Guy renewed
Gothamrenewed
Lethal Weaponrenewed
Luciferrenewed
New Girlrenewed
Starrenewed
The Exorcist renewed
The Last Man On Earthrenewed
The Mickrenewed
The Simpsons renewed
NBC
Program% Renewal Chance
Chicago Justicecanceled
Emerald City canceled
Grimm canceled
Powerlesscanceled
The Blacklist: Redemptioncanceled
Blindspotrenewed
Chicago Firerenewed
Chicago Medrenewed
Chicago P.D.renewed
Great Newsrenewed
Law & Order: SVU renewed
Shades Of Bluerenewed
Superstore renewed
Takenrenewed
The Blacklistrenewed
The Good Placerenewed
This Is Usrenewed
Timelessrenewed
Trial And Errorrenewed


It’s time to wrap up the 2016-17 broadcast TV season of predictions, after the reaper feels like he’s gone through a week long roller coaster ride.

Two new trends emerged in the network decisions this renewal/cancellation season.

Far fewer new broadcast scripted shows ordered for the 2017-18 season. (30 vs. 42 for 16-17).

Given that the CW ordered 4 (vs 3), the “big 4” networks ordered just 26 vs. 39 last season. That meant several shows that would have been canceled in recent past seasons were renewed. That had some effect on the reaper’s predictions. Usually his number of renewal and cancellation prediction misses are roughly comparable. This season, cancellation misses outnumbered renewal misses 8-2.

In house productions, co-productions and back end revenue sharing became a much bigger deal.

Shows produced by in house studios (i.e. ABC Studios for ABC) have always had some advantage in renewal decisions. This season the advantages were even stronger. Shows from outside studios were cancelled that might have survived in recent seasons (Last Man Standing), and several in house shows survived that would otherwise have been canceled (like The Exorcist).

Learning for the future!

What can we learn (if anything!) from this season’s misses?

Taken – an international co-production that apparently made it much cheaper for NBC to continue with low ratings. That’s something the that should have at least been factored into the confidence level of the prediction.

The Originals – the reaper thought he’d cracked the code on low rated CW shows (they all end after 70-80 episodes!). That still may be the code for renewals (they all get to at least 70-80 eps), but not the code for cancellations.

Great News – chalking this up to the “in house” production + fewer new shows added this spring. It had aired only 2 episodes, and the ratings weren’t good.

The Exorcist – in house production + fewer new shows, plus a reasonable likelihood the show’s a lot cheaper than comparable Fox dramas, so it’s OK on Fridays.

New Girl – a case of the reaper acting on information without a lot of history behind it. A lead actor opined that the show was “probably done”. That’s typically signaled the end of a show. It didn’t this time.

Great News – Produced by NBCU, part of the “in house” wave this season? If not that, not sure what else is to be learned.

Elementary – anecdotal evidence that its syndication deal would help it survive another season even with terrible ratings. The reaper didn’t think it would. It apparently was.

Agents of SHIELD – low ratings and scheduling that showed indifference by ABC said cancellation to the reaper. ABC said renewal.

Timeless – canceled, and then renewed after Sony made NBC a offer it couldn’t refuse. That’s happened at least once before in the last decade (Unforgettable). No way to adjust for that, will take that miss every time.

Quantico – in a week of shocking results, this might be the most shocking. It ABC’s third lowest rated show this spring. No new shows + keep in house productions with a vengeance?

Last Man Standing – old shows sometimes get too expensive for their ratings. The reaper thought LMS ratings were still ahead of its cost, but was wrong. Likely also disadvantaged because it’s owned by Fox.

Dr. Ken – 74% of ABC’s average scripted rating should have been enough for a renewal. Edit: ABC put Once Upon A Time at 8pm Friday, which somewhat explains, if after the fact, cancelling the two sitcoms.

Fox has said they’d “like to do more” 24:Legacy and Prison Break, similar to what they said about The X-Files last May. Those shows have been kept out of the final prediction tally.

The final results for the reaper (85-13-2, 87%) were his lowest on a % basis since 2009-10. His prediction record has been updated with this year’s results. You can see this season’s show by show tally below.

Are you missing the ratings information from previous prediction posts? You can view the reaper’s entire spreadsheet of ratings here.

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The reaper’s running prediction tally this season: 85-13-2

  • Right: Notorious, The Simpsons, Conviction, Pure Genius, Jane The Virgin, Supernatural, Legends of Tomorrow, Arrow, Supergirl, The Flash, Empire, This Is Us, The Middle, The Good Place, Scandal, Greys Anatomy, How To Get Away With Murder, Lucifer, Superstore, Star, Lethal Weapon, The Mick, Doubt, The 100, Training Day, Shades Of Blue, Big Bang Theory, Superior Donuts, Life In Pieces, MacGyver, Hawaii Five-0, Blue Bloods, NCIS:LA, NCIS:NO, Man With A Plan, Kevin Can Wait, Bull, Mom, Madam Secretary, Scorpion, Time After Time, Criminal Minds, The Odd Couple, Powerless, Pitch, Emerald City, Family Guy, Frequency, No Tomorrow, Rosewood, Sleepy Hollow, Blindspot, Chicago Fire, ChicagoPD, ChicagoMed, Modern Family, iZombie, blackish, Last Man on Earth, Gotham, The Blacklist, Making History, Son Of Zorn, APB, The Goldbergs, American Crime, Imaginary Mary, Once Upon A Time, The Catch, The Real O’Neals, Secrets And Lies, American Housewife, Designated Survivor, Blacklist:Redemption, Brooklyn99, Speechless, Fresh Off The Boat, Law & Order: SVU, Two Broke Girls, The Great Indoors, Code Black, Criminal Minds: Behind Borders, Scream Queens, Shots Fired, Ransom
  • Wrong: Taken, Last Man Standing, The Originals, Great News, Dr. Ken, Agents Of SHIELD, The Exorcist, Timeless, Elementary, New Girl, Quantico, Trial And Error, Chicago Justice
  • Draw (renewed or canceled while a toss up): Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Riverdale

Reign, canceled before the reaper had a prediction for it, is not included in the tally above. NCIS & Bob’s Burgers were renewed before the season began. The Vampire Diaries, Bones & Grimm were canceled before the season began.

How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.


Also published on Medium.

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