Predictions Week 25: #The100 Is Likely To Be Renewed

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See all the Reaper’s past predictions here.

TV Grim Reaper’s predictions are for scripted broadcast primetime show renewals for the 2017-18 season or cancellations by the end of the 2016-17 season. 

ABC
Program% Renewal Chance
Secrets And Lies5%
Time After Time15%
Quantico20%
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.25%
The Real O’Neals30%
Once Upon A Time50%
Designated Survivor75%
Dr. Ken80%
Last Man Standing90%
Fresh Off The Boat90%
Speechless99%
American Housewife99%
The Goldbergs99%
Modern Family99%
black-ish100%
Convictioncanceled
Notoriouscanceled
How To Get Away With Murder renewed
The Middlerenewed
Scandalrenewed
Grey’s Anatomy renewed
CBS
Program% Renewal Chance
Ransom5%
Training Day5% cancelled
Elementary10%
The Odd Couple40%
2 Broke Girls50%
Code Black 60%
Superior Donuts65%
Criminal Minds 65%
Mom85%
Life in Pieces 85%
MacGyver 90%
Hawaii Five-0 90%
NCIS: Los Angeles 90%
Man With A Plan90%
Kevin Can Wait90%
Great Indoors90%
Blue Bloods 90%
Bull99%
The Big Bang Theory99%
Madam Secretary100%
NCIS: New Orleans100%
Scorpion100%
Pure Geniuscanceled
Doubtcanceled
NCIS renewed
CW
Program% Renewal Chance
No Tomorrow5%
Frequency5%
Riverdale50% renewed
The 10060% renewed
Reign canceled
The Vampire Diaries canceled
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend renewed
Jane The Virginrenewed
Arrowrenewed
Supernaturalrenewed
DC’s Legends Of Tomorrowrenewed
Supergirl renewed
The Flashrenewed
Fox
Program% Renewal Chance
Scream Queens 5%
Sleepy Hollow 10%
The Exorcist 15%
Pitch15%
Rosewood 25%
APB30%
Making History45%
Son of Zorn50%
24: Legacy55%
The Last Man On Earth75%
New Girl90%
Gotham95%
Brooklyn Nine-Nine95%
Family Guy 99%
Bonescanceled
The Mickrenewed
Bob’s Burgersrenewed
Luciferrenewed
Starrenewed
Lethal Weaponrenewed
The Simpsons renewed
Empirerenewed
NBC
Program% Renewal Chance
Emerald City 10%
Timeless20%
Powerless20%
The Blacklist: Redemption40%
Blindspot50%
The Blacklist60%
Shades Of Blue60%
Chicago Justice75%
Taken75%
Chicago Med99%
Chicago P.D.99%
Law & Order: SVU 99%
Chicago Fire99%
Grimm canceled
The Good Placerenewed
Superstore renewed
This Is Usrenewed


The 100 is likely to be renewed.

At the end of this season, its fourth, The 100 will have produced 58 episodes.

While The CW often cancels its ultra low rated shows after 4 seasons, it hasn’t canceled any with fewer than 70 episodes that have gone more than 2 seasons.

  • Reign 4 seasons, 78 episodes
  • Beauty & The Beast 4 seasons, 70 episodes
  • Hart Of Dixie 4 seasons, 76 episodes
  • Nikita 4 seasons, 73 episodes

The reaper’s predicting that ~70 episodes (and not 4 seasons) is the crucial threshold for The CW’s renewal decision, and he’s moved the renewal prediction for The 100 to a barely confident 60% on the assumption another ~13 episodes will be ordered.

Why just 60% chance of renewal? If the CW’s threshold is instead “4 seasons” and the number of episodes is irrelevant, as a reasonable person could guess, then the show’s done, and the reaper’s going to suffer a prediction miss. Either way, its current slightly below the CW average ratings aren’t going to matter one way or the other.

While the reaper had intended to wait until iZombie & The Originals premiered to change his The 100 prediction, he decided that their results really don’t change the reasons for the reaper’s conclusions on The 100, so there’s no time like the present.

The reaper had promised that Blacklist:Redemption would be in this week’s headline, but given its ratings increase last week, the reaper will hold off to see if it was a fluke. If the ratings hold, his prediction will adjust upwards.

Where did the emojis go? Why did the prediction table change? Explained in the Week 24 post here.

Are you missing the ratings information from previous prediction posts? You can view the reaper’s entire spreadsheet of ratings here.

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The reaper’s running prediction tally this season: 25-0-2

  • Right: Notorious, The Simpsons, Conviction, Pure Genius, Jane The Virgin, Supernatural, Legends of Tomorrow, Arrow, Supergirl, The Flash, Empire, This Is Us, The Middle, The Good Place, Scandal, Greys Anatomy, How To Get Away With Murder, Lucifer, Superstore, Star, Lethal Weapon, The Mick, Doubt, The 100, Training Day
  • Wrong:
  • Draw (renewed or canceled while a toss up): Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Riverdale

Reign, canceled before the reaper had a prediction for it, is not included in the tally above.

How good have TV Grim Reaper’s predictions been in past seasons? See his past prediction record here.

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